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Casey's Q1 Earnings on the Horizon: What Investors Need to Know

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Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) is poised to release its first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2025 on Sep. 4 after the closing bell. Investors are anticipating another decent performance from this convenience store chain operator, with expectations of both revenue growth and a slight uptick in earnings per share.

Analysts are optimistic about Casey's revenue prospects for the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate places revenues at $4,112 million, indicating a 6.3% increase compared to the same quarter last year. This growth is likely to have been driven by the company's ongoing efforts to expand its store network and enhance its offerings.

Casey’s earnings per share are also expected to have improved year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been revised slightly upward by 0.9% over the past seven days, now standing at $4.54. This figure calls for a modest 0.4% increase from the prior-year period.

This Ankeny, IA-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 37.7%.

Key Insights Ahead of Casey’s Q1 Earnings Release

Casey's resilient business operating model, stellar omnichannel capabilities, expanded customer outreach and exclusive private-label offerings provide a solid foundation in the market. With a strategic emphasis on technological advancements, diversified product lines and store expansion initiatives, the company looks well-positioned to deliver growth.

Casey's is poised for a revenue increase in the first quarter, driven by its strong performance in high-margin segments and strategic expansion initiatives. The company's emphasis on prepared food and dispensed beverage as well as grocery and general merchandise categories, has bolstered its profitability, supported by effective pricing strategies and operational efficiencies. 

We anticipate a 9.4% increase in sales for the grocery and general merchandise category in the first quarter. The prepared food and dispensed beverage segment is expected to follow suit with a projected growth of 11.8%. As a result, inside sales are projected to increase by 10.1%, with inside same-store sales anticipated to rise by 4.3%. 

Casey's fuel segment remains a critical revenue driver for the company, contributing to its overall performance. The company has been focusing on optimizing its fuel margins by leveraging its supply-chain efficiencies and dynamic pricing strategies. We expect sales from the segment to increase by 3.2% for the quarter under review.

Casey's ongoing expansion through new store openings and acquisitions, including entering new markets, has broadened its customer base and geographic reach. The implementation of innovative technologies, such as a digital production planner, further optimizes store operations and reduces waste, enhancing overall efficiency. These factors, coupled with robust customer engagement through loyalty programs and innovative product offerings, create a favorable environment for revenue growth.

While the aforementioned factors raise optimism, challenges such as rising operating expenses present potential risks to margins. We expect operating expenses to rise 10.2% in the first quarter.

Earnings Whispers for CASY

As investors prepare for Casey's first-quarter earnings, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Casey's this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Casey's has an Earnings ESP of +1.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.87% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BURL’s quarterly earnings has increased by 7.6% in the past 30 days to $1.41. The consensus mark for earnings indicates a 43.9% surge from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.53 billion, which implies a rise of 10.5% from the year-ago quarter. BURL delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 18.4%.

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COST’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $80.2 billion, which implies growth of 1.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for Costco’s bottom line has been stable at $5.02 per share over the past 30 days. The consensus mark for earnings suggests growth of 3.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. COST delivered an earnings beat of 2.3%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Chewy (CHWY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHWY’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.86 billion, which suggests growth of 4.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for Chewy’s bottom line has risen by a penny to 22 cents a share over the past seven days. The consensus mark for earnings suggests growth of 46.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. CHWY delivered an earnings beat of 50.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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